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Topic: Semifinal Playoff Picks 2019

The Chargers may have been eliminated, but that doesn't mean we stop trying to pick some winners. Just 12 games left in the private school 11-man season. With 16 teams left, there are 5 Eagles including at least 1 in each division. Will this be the year every division is won by the Eagles? I doubt it and I hope not.

This Week: (Season: 80-18)

Division I

Plano John Paul II vs. San Antonio Antonian @ Georgetown -- This may be the least likely semifinal I could have imagined when the year started. The Apaches entered 2019 having won 9 games in the last two seasons, they've now won 9 this year after defeating Prestonwood on a game ending Hail Mary. The Cardinals are the perennial losers in Division I, having never won a playoff game in program history until this year. Prior to Coach Teague's arrival John Paul had lost 32 in a row an had never won more than 3 games in a season. In his first year, they broke the steak but still won just 2. In year two, the Cardinals reached 4 wins for the first time. This year, they've exploded for a 7-3 regular season and 2 playoff wins. With 9 vicotries in 2019, John Paul II has as many wins this season as they did from 2012-2018 combined. Given these histories it should come as no surprise the school have never met in football. Now that we've done the history lets look at the teams. The 3 defeats for the Cardinals came to Dallas Christian by 11, Prestonwood by 12, and a blowout by Parish Episcopal. The Apaches took 3 losses in a row to Beeville Jones, Boerne, and Houston St. Thomas. The struggles of the schools south of I-20 in the Division I playoffs led to us pretty much counting out the District 3 runner-up. Of course, 3rd place in District 2 didn't really inspire confidence yet here we are. The Cardinals offense has been dynamic against inferior opponents and generally struggled against the best opposition. Then, they dominated Nolan last week in posting 49 points. They also snuck by Central Catholic, but similar margin that Antonian playd with them. The Apaches beat Prestonwood which JP2 could not do in the regular season. I really don't know about this one, mainly because I wouldn't have imagined them playing in the semifinals. Blind guess, the Cardinal run continues. John Paul II to the state final 33-30.

Dallas Parish Episcopal vs. Houston St. Thomas @ The Star -- In the other half of the bracket we get the teams we expected. The Panthers have been the best team in Division I all year, except for the loss to All Saints in Week 4. Given what has taken place since, I'm just considering that the aberration. While many teams have not played well off the 1st round bye, the Panthers likely benefited as they had played 10 games in 10 weeks leading up to that bye. Only the All Saints loss saw the Panthers fail to reach 30 points, and a 44-6 blowout of Midland Christian certainly announces to the field the Panthers readiness. The Eagles managed 9 wins after dropping their first 2. Some years it seems the big games with Strake Jesuit and St. Pius are all that interests in the Eagles. This year has been different with their first semifinal appearance since 2014. St. Thomas is another squad that snuck by Central Catholic. The Buttons lost to 3 of the 4 semifinalists by a combined 9 points. They may have been better than a 5-6 team. The weather will not be a factor in this one which I think only helps the Panthers. Parish beat TCCH in Week 2 to open their season while St. Thomas lost to the Tigers 50-0. The Eagles beat Bishop Lynch by 4 to reach Round 3, but the Panthers bested them by 40 earlier in the year. While it is a year of upsets in the Division I playoffs, Parish gets to its first Division I title game 42-21.

Division II

Grapevine Faith Christian vs. Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill  @ TC-Addison -- The Lions slid by DC with 2 late touchdowns to turn a 17-14 deficit into a 28-17 win, and at 10-1 will certainly have their shot at the king. The Tigers are the back-to-back state champions and have been largely unchallenged this season after losing to Parish in Week 2 in OT. Dallas Christian closed to within 4 early in the 2nd half, but the Tigers galloped away in the later stages. At 24 points, it was the closest margin of victory for TCCH on the season. The Lions have only been beaten by UIL power Canadian. Admittedly the Tigers level of dominance is hard to match, but the Lions have not had the same margin in their wins. Just a 4 point win over FWC makes it hard to pick Faith here. A win over SPC champion Country Day is a nice one, and they did wind up with not too dissimilar score against DC. However, the champs are on top until someone can knock them off. Tigers try for 3 in a row after winning 42-21.

Regents School of Austin vs. Houston Second Baptist @ Waller -- The Eagles and Knights meet for a spot in the title game for the 2nd straight year. Regents took home a shutout win, 35-0, last year. The Eagles are the only undefeated team left Divisions I or II and have lit up the scoreboard all year. Only Victoria St. Joseph held Second Baptist under 38 points, and they did it twice. I suspect the Knights will be the best defense the Eagles have seen this year. The Knights have scored 29 or more in every game this year. There are a few common opponents. Regents bested Brentwood, Fort Bend, and Lutheran South by scores of 35-6, 45-14, and 34-13. Second Baptist won 43-29, 56-12, and 42-14. There isn't much there to go on there. The upset here will be if its a blowout. Neither side would surprise me as a winner. I think they'll hold each other relatively in check. I'll go low scoring, and with Regents to reach a 4th straight title game. Knights win 22-19.

Division III

Lubbock Christian vs. Colleyville Covenant Christian @ ACU -- The Eagles are 12-0 again and a prime contender for the Division III title and will break a streak of taking on the Lions three weeks in a row. The Cougars are a more surprising Round 3 participant. Reaching the semis after a 3-6 regular season. Both squads won road games at Lubbock Trinity. The Eagles were much more dominant early on, but have regained offensive prowess with 52 and 56 in their two playoff games. This shouldn't be the day Lubbock Christian is knocked off, but the Cougars did just reverse a regular season loss to Pantego. No turkeys left after thanksgiving, so it won't be easy. Eagles return to the state final, 31-21.

Boerne Geneva vs. The Woodlands Christian @ Bastrop -- The Eagles are back in the semis for a 3rd straight season. Willow Park Trinity bested them in the final last season. The Warriors are the other 12-0 team in Division III. Perhaps a battle of 13-0 squads for a title next Saturday? The Eagles had a ugly 1-4 start, but against good opponents. Now Geneva is a 7-0 run and have been excellent against Division III opposition this year. TWCA's low game of the season was 34 points. Geneva will not be an easy out, but this should be the Warriors year. I think the TWCA offense is too much, but the playoffs do strange things. Warriors reach their first state title game, 42-21.

Division IV

Muenster Sacred Heart vs. Hallettsville Sacred Heart @ Riesel -- The Sacred Heart showdown pits two teams on opposite ends of the playoff expectations. The Indians came into the playoffs at 4-5 before posting wins over First Baptist and Brazos Christian. The Tigers came off a 1st round bye at 10-0 and got by Legacy Prep 20-12. At one point illness led to cancelling a game with lack of players for the Indians. The Tigers have looked to be a top contender in Division IV all year. Only 3 of 11 opponents reached 20 against the Tigers. The Indians scored 20 or more just 6 times in 11 games, but have done so in their last 3. The Northern Sacred Heart's are a clear favorite, but the Southern variety did play the defending champion to a 7 point game. I feel like I've picked too many favorites this week, but I'll take another. Tigers reach another state final, 32-22.

Shiner St. Paul vs. Fort Worth Lake Country Christian @ Temple -- Last year's championship was both expected and unexpected for the Cardinals. On the one hand, they are always in the mix in Division IV, deserving to be complimented for making the most of their relatively small enrollment (almost certainly smaller than a 6-man champion this year). On the other hand, they finished the regular season at 2-8. Accomplishing the rare 6-8 state championship. It was a better year for the Cardinals, posting a 7-3 regular season and earning a 1st round bye. The three losses to much larger schools in Geneva, Victoria St. Joseph, and Weimar. Lake Country enters at 8-4 having just taken out the District 4 champion in Rosehill. Muenster Sacred Heart and Dallas Covenant account for two of the Eagles losses. Covenant was the Cardinals most recent playoff opponent. St. Paul scored 63 while Lake Country just 14. The Eagles have been playing well to reach this point, but St. Paul should have enough. The Cardinals reach yet another state final with a 35-20 win.

Historical Results:
2015: 94-16
2016: 79-25
2017: 78-32
2018: 88-22

Quick Hits finishes the year at 103-27. Amazingly consistent from year to year.
2015: 60-15
2016: 103-26
2017: 101-29
2018: 102-28

Picks Archive: https://genericviewssports.blogspot.com/

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Re: Semifinal Playoff Picks 2019

DCS- as always, I look forward to your picks and appreciate the time you spend on the research and write up.  From what little I know about the other Divisions I agree with the picks this week.  DIII is where I would pick the other way. 

Both Geneva and CCA have less impressive records but both schools played a tougher schedule than their respective opponents.  Geneva's losses came to two DI schools, a DII semi-finalist, and an 11-1 UIL 2A squad.  Throw in a win over Shriner St. Paul. 

CCA's 5-6 record came against teams with a combined 68-48 record while Lubbock Christian amassed an impressive 12-0 record against teams that went 47-89 with teams playing one team twice (district then playoffs).  They do have wins against a common opponent, Lubbock Trinity.  Eagles won by 5 at home and the Cougars by 10 in Lubbock.


WARNING: HOMER ALERT
Needless to say, those familiar with the CCA season have to be pleasantly surprised to where they are now compared to the summer and first few games of the season.  Those young men and coaches have come together to do something special, both on the field and off. 

If interested, read this https://www.covenantchristian.net/blog/family-matters.  Great picture of what is happening at TAPPS schools across the state.  Thankful for coaches who give of themselves to build up our young men and women for the important work ahead of them after high school.

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Re: Semifinal Playoff Picks 2019

Love the insight torugo. Lubbock Christian is always a tricky one to pick in the playoffs because the non-district schedule is so different from everyone else. Covenant was definitely first or second on the list for picks I might change. If I was going to confidence rank this week's winners:

1. TCCH
2. St. Paul
3. Parish
4. Muenster
5. Regents
6. Woodlands
7. Lubbock
8. John Paul

4 (edited by michaeljw 2019-11-30 10:49:26)

Re: Semifinal Playoff Picks 2019

Final
Regents 35
Second Baptist 0

Halletsville Sacred Heart 29
Muenster Sacred Heart 0

5 (edited by dcs07 2019-12-01 12:08:50)

Re: Semifinal Playoff Picks 2019

This Week: (Season: 80-18)

Division I

Plano John Paul II over San Antonio Antonian (31-13) -- Correct
--A big congrats to the Cardinals for earning their first 10 win season and first state final. They may be up against it to turn a 40 point deficit from Week 10 around, but they'll have a shot.

Dallas Parish Episcopal over Houston St. Thomas (41-21) -- Correct
--The Eagles did not go down easily, but the Panthers offense has been too much for everyone (except All Saints) this season. So we have the expected vs. the unexpected for the Division I crown.

Division II

Trinity Christian - Cedar Hill over Grapevine Faith Christian (52-14) -- Correct
--The Tigers continue to dominate offensively since the loss to Parish. The defense has been really good too. Going to be hard to push the Tigers off the throne. Another really good season for Faith is stopped by TCCH.

Austin Regents over Houston Second Baptist (35-0) -- Correct
--The Knights defense puts up a shutout. A 4th straight final for Regents and round 3 with the Tigers. The Knights had a couple of moments in last year's title game to build on, but its certainly an uphill climb.

Division III

Lubbock Christian over Colleyville Covenant Christian (63-32) -- Correct
--A wow performance from the Eagles offense. Covenant very game, but just not able to keep pace in the later stages.

The Woodlands Christian over Boerne Geneva (45-77) -- Wrong
--The Warriors offense certainly delivered, but not the defense. Its all Eagles in Division III.

Division IV

Muenster Sacred Heart over Hallettsville Sacred Heart (0-29) -- Wrong
--The Indians pull a mild upset here, and they will get their rematch with rival St. Paul.

Shiner St. Paul over Fort Worth Lake Country Christian (41-14) -- Correct
--The Cardinals remain a nearly unstoppable force in Division IV. Longtime rivals, separated by just 14 miles, meet for the title.

Week 14: 6-2
Season: 86-20

Quick Hits finishes the year at 103-27.

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Re: Semifinal Playoff Picks 2019

Never underestimate them country boys from the South (Shiner St. Paul / Hallettsville Sacred Heart) they both may not be undefeated but their strength of pre-district schedule against some pretty decent UIL teams and bigger TAPPS teams helps. It will be loud next week for the title game and if that’s not enough entertainment for ya. They start their basketball season 3 days later vs one another in Shiner. Gonna be a busy rivalry few days.

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Re: Semifinal Playoff Picks 2019

CCA played a good first half but turnovers got the best of them.  Good luck to a great Lubbock team.  Well coach and very disciplined.  These two will be in the same district next year so that could be fun.

Overall, not many, if any, close games in the semis.  Hope that is not true in the finals but guessing that at least one, maybe two, could be lopsided.  The surprise team has to be JPII. Coach Teague has turned that program around in just a few years but they have a tall mountain to climb facing Parish.